2014 El Niño

[icefest]

Seeing as the BoM have said it's more likely than not, I thought we should have a thread discussing the local effects.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

For me, the worst bit is the great increase in bushfire risk. Let's hope it won't be like 83

[Giddy_up]

It will be interesting for sure if it develops. Very early days but does already look like we are seeing warming along the equatorial line in the Eastern Pacific and cooling in the Western Pacific. It's interesting to note that the IOD is still neutral which has allot of influence on rainfall in the southern half of Australia, which could be a positive and lessen the effects. Let's hope its wrong and stays neutral.

[icefest]

[quote=http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview]The likelihood of El Niño remains high, with all climate models surveyed by the Bureau now indicating El Niño is likely to occur in 2014. Six of the seven models suggest El Niño thresholds may be exceeded as early as July.[/quote]

To top thing off, the latest update seems to be forecasting a more pronounced IOD occurring by September possibly resulting in decreased late winter rainfall.

[wayno]

in NZ it means very wet in the west, very dry in the east, and a lot of strong westerly winds..

[Orion]

In California it often means lots of rain. And big snow in the mountains. We're in our third year of drought and it's getting serious. A big chunk of Yosemite burned last year. Farmers are eliminating crops for lack of water. So despite the harm an El Niño causes elsewhere in the world, and the floods and mudslides that we would get, most people here are hoping for one.

[icefest]

In California it often means lots of rain. And big snow in the mountains. We're in our third year of drought and it's getting serious. A big chunk of Yosemite burned last year. Farmers are eliminating crops for lack of water. So despite the harm an El Niño causes elsewhere in the world, and the floods and mudslides that we would get, most people here are hoping for one.

Sadly no El Niño yet has managed to punch through the summer blocking pacific high to such an extent that the drought could disappear by winter. You will probably have a decent winter though.

[Orion]

I hope you're right about that. I know that the consensus forecast is for positive El Niño conditions next winter in the northern hemisphere. Right now NOAA (our version of BOM) is giving it 75% probability. Their prediction is likely based on the same suite of models that BOM uses. But there is a fair amount of uncertainty this many months in advance as to the timing and strength. I've seen it before where the forecast is made and then it fizzles.

To be honest I'm not sure what El Niño means if it's strong during our summer.

[icefest]

Many climate models are predicting increased frequency intensity of El Niño conditions (Guilyardi, 2006; Lenton et al., 2008).

If this is true expect a significant change in Tasmanian alpine flora.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=16912

[icefest]

50% of the great barrier reef is dead already.

“We are playing Russian roulette until the next El Nino year, which is when the Pacific ocean periodically warms up” says Veron. “When that hits, we won’t have a reef as we’ve ever imagined it. It will be algae, not coral. We are on the path to a mass extinction. My children will see that happen and I find that horrific.”

From the Guardians Orbituary of the Great Barrier Reef.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... f-obituary

[Orion]

Many climate models are predicting increased frequency of El Niño conditions (Guilyardi, 2006; Lenton et al., 2008).

It seems to me they are saying the amplitude is likely to increase, not the frequency.

"Results from this large subset of models suggest the likelihood of increased El Niño amplitude in a warmer climate, though there is considerable spread of El Niño behaviour among the models and the changes in the subsurface thermocline properties that may be important for El Niño change could not be assessed. There are no clear indications of an El Niño frequency change with increased GHG." (Guilyardi, 2006)

"In response to a warmer stabilized climate, the most realistic models simulate increased El Niño amplitude with no clear change in frequency." (Lenton, 2008)