Private Search Party for missing bushwalker Mt Koscuiskzo

[frenchy_84]

BTW I know many of us will have opinions about the likely outcomes and what the missing hiker could have done differently, but please remember this specific thread was started by a family member who may well return and read the subsequent posts.

Hey guys, I think this statement should be followed more closely, there is a lot of speculation in this thread, that the family members may find upsetting. The family are obviously quite distraught, so I don't think it is wise to speculate like this on a thread started by the family asking for help.

[wander]

can anyone remember a case like this one? where the family were so vehement about continuing the search in such circumstances?

Pretty much every time someone goes missing and is not found. The family and friends are doing exactly what most family and friends groups do when someone goes missing and is not found. It is normal behaviour in my experience and observation. Some groups have better resources than others and are able to be more visible, but at the core of things the emotions and desires to recover their loved ones are the same.

[Lindsay]

BTW I know many of us will have opinions about the likely outcomes and what the missing hiker could have done differently, but please remember this specific thread was started by a family member who may well return and read the subsequent posts.

Hey guys, I think this statement should be followed more closely, there is a lot of speculation in this thread, that the family members may find upsetting. The family are obviously quite distraught, so I don't think it is wise to speculate like this on a thread started by the family asking for help.

This is fine up to a point. The family are no doubt distraught and may not be thinking rationally. However when they begin to question the motives and competence of the emergency services and make accusations about such things on facebook and in the press then they cannot be left unchallenged. It now seems to me that this family are blaming everyone but the missing man himself for this situation, and casting slurs on organisations that have an excellent track record of search and rescue. Greif is understandable, this strange belief that money will solve the problem is not.

[wayno]

i think by default the authorities won't say anything to defend themselves against what the missing mans relatives are saying. but you can imagine what its like for them having done their best to search for this man and have the relatives continually criticise the competence of the search operation

[colinm]

It's hard for me to really make a coherent model from the email complaints of the missing man's cousin, but it seems that she is convinced, with 20/20 hindsight, that he's missing in a particular canyon (Lady Northcote Canyon) on the basis that a report to hand (on day 8 of his excursion?) suggested that a voice may have been heard. Odd that an experienced hiker with extensive outdoor experience wouldn't carry a whistle, but ok.

The cousin states that the lost man "easily could've lost his footing and fell into ANY area where they think it’s difficult for him to have gotten to." Which I take to mean that she accepts that he could be in just about any hole anywhere within some radius of his last known position. Further, she accepts that searching the canyon in question would "need ropes and harnesses and someone with experience of mountain climbing."

She then asks, rhetorically, by way of criticism of the search effort:

If these are the most experienced and professional hikers out there, why haven't they sent a mountain climber to search that area?

Of course, they're volunteers, not professionals, for the most part. But more importantly, perhaps they haven't sent a mountain climber to search that area because they are not convinced of the reported voice, because they don't want to expose someone else to the risk of searching that canyon in the prevailing conditions, or even because there's nobody with the necessary skills available and willing to do it.

Like it or not, there is a cost and an actual risk to every phase of searching, and it is the responsibility of the person directing the search to allocate resources with a view to containing costs and minimising avoidable risk to searchers when it is judged to yield no probable benefit.

If events show that the people conducting the search made an avoidable error, or even if there is proven to have been a possible course of action which could hypothetically have located the man alive, or his remains, then that would of course be lamentable. In any case, though, the people conducting the search cannot be judged with the benefit of hindsight, but only in the light of what they knew, and whether their judgements were reasonable at the time. I see no reason to doubt they have been.

[frenchy_84]

BTW I know many of us will have opinions about the likely outcomes and what the missing hiker could have done differently, but please remember this specific thread was started by a family member who may well return and read the subsequent posts.

Hey guys, I think this statement should be followed more closely, there is a lot of speculation in this thread, that the family members may find upsetting. The family are obviously quite distraught, so I don't think it is wise to speculate like this on a thread started by the family asking for help.

This is fine up to a point. The family are no doubt distraught and may not be thinking rationally. However when they begin to question the motives and competence of the emergency services and make accusations about such things on facebook and in the press then they cannot be left unchallenged. It now seems to me that this family are blaming everyone but the missing man himself for this situation, and casting slurs on organisations that have an excellent track record of search and rescue. Greif is understandable, this strange belief that money will solve the problem is not.

You can't see that as a distraught family struggling to come to terms with reality? In this thread we have someone suggesting that he never intended on coming back an someone else saying that the family are only doing it for insurance! All speculation

[wayno]

perhaps another thread could be started if people want to speculate

[Nuts]

BTW I know many of us will have opinions about the likely outcomes and what the missing hiker could have done differently, but please remember this specific thread was started by a family member who may well return and read the subsequent posts.

Hey guys, I think this statement should be followed more closely, there is a lot of speculation in this thread, that the family members may find upsetting. The family are obviously quite distraught, so I don't think it is wise to speculate like this on a thread started by the family asking for help.

Yes I Agee, nothing too thoughtless here and people are showing restraint, these things do get people concerned.. Some comments a bit close to the wind perhaps.. but there is a report on the topic and pending admin to consider locking it.... just saying..

[frenchy_84]

I don't see how that really changes things, your still writing baseless speculation in a public forum

[stepbystep]

Well said Frenchy,

[Nuts]

Yes we can't have baseless speculation on a public forum... There was a report on the topic, some people uneasy about the discussion- Ill lock it again for now. Personally I think the topic of private searches is worth a place.. If it can be done without needing to refer to specific searches.

[Nuts]

Colin kindly sent me this link to a blog post from a Ca S&R member he has made aware of the discussion here.. I think it worthwhile including:

http://blog.oplopanax.ca/2013/06/on-pos ... urce=pubv1

[cjhfield]

I think there is some misinformation that just gets requoted on the net. This fellow I think was last seen around 6 PM May 13 going through the park entry gates. He probably slept in his van overnight and started his walk on 14 th. It is not clear to me whether anyone actually saw him set off and what equipment he had with him but it is clear he was only intending a day walk. If he slept in the van he might well have set off early before other traffic reached the car park. There was a storm on 13 th that left some snow and I think a further storm on 14 th in evening or overnight. There may have been a better patch of weather between these two. As the search only started a week later it is hard to be sure the exact circumstances.

So setting out on the day may not have been so crazy. But I think Wayno is right that programs like Man vs Wild do reduce people's respect for bad weather. The average person would probably have turned back faced with fresh snow or poor visibility.

If someone is well equipped and can keep dry and warm it is amazing how they can survive - like Joe Simpson (Touching the Void).

Chris

[matagi]

Given this guy is Canadian, his assessment of our weather conditions may have been flawed. Canada is typically way colder in winter and their blizzards are way meaner, so it is possible he underestimated the potential severity of the conditions on the day.

Equally, he could have been well prepared but met with some misadventure.

Right now, nobody knows and the answer may never be known.

[wayno]

agreed, Astralia has a reputation for being a hot place, even if you look at the facts, it doesnt look that cold or have as harsh a weather compared to Canada. it could be deceptive for someone visiting from a colder climate...
someone told me that it doesnt really matter that much how cold th temp is when you get below minus ten, if you're wrapped up well , its all pretty similar. there no moisture in the air . and the moisture accelerates heat loss where it touches your skin and gets under your clothes. so its hard to compare temperatures by temperature alone.... damp conditions can kill just as effectively as cold...

[colinm]

http://goo.gl/eCdQl ... doesn't look like the kind of thing I would want to weather a couple of blizzards in.

[FatCanyoner]

someone told me that it doesnt really matter that much how cold th temp is when you get below minus ten, if you're wrapped up well , its all pretty similar. there no moisture in the air . and the moisture accelerates heat loss where it touches your skin and gets under your clothes. so its hard to compare temperatures by temperature alone.... damp conditions can kill just as effectively as cold...

I have a Finish friend who was complaining on a recent bushwalk about how cold she gets in the Aussie bush. I laughed at her and said that Finland is insanely colder. She said the exact same thing about the humidity. She told me that -20C with a really dry cold is much less chilling than +5C in Australia where it is much more moist. I was quite surprised, but coming form someone who not only grew up with that cold, but is extremely active with outdoor pursuits, it carried some weight.

[Lizzy]

I'm currently re-reading the amazing survival tale of James Scott, a Brisbane med student who got lost trekking in Nepal back in Dec 1991 - which is their winter. He survived 43 days under a ledge with no food or fire. He ate snow. He did have a backpack with long johns & sleeping bag. Quite amazing stuff. Hope this fellow is as "lucky".....

[GPSGuided]

I'm currently re-reading the amazing survival tale of James Scott, a Brisbane med student who got lost trekking in Nepal back in Dec 1991 - which is their winter. He survived 43 days under a ledge with no food or fire. He ate snow. He did have a backpack with long johns & sleeping bag. Quite amazing stuff. Hope this fellow is as "lucky".....

And he eventually became an adolescent psychiatrist. Ummm...

[wayno]

an item like a sleeping bag can make a big difference to your survival chances....

[GPSGuided]

an item like a sleeping bag can make a big difference to your survival chances....

This is a good one too.
http://www.rei.com/product/813512/sol-emergency-blanket

[jonnosan]

Lizzy's post got me intrigued so I asked Google and found this http://www.medicaltranslation.com.au/me ... -survived/

A fascinating story indeed. It seems a big part of his survival was because he had the presence of mind (and the necessary items in his backpack) to keep one set of clothes dry and change in and out of another set whenever he went outside.

[wayno]

also what your clothes are made of can be literally life and death.
three teenagers were stuck out in snow overnight in the nz mountains..
two died, one lived, the two who died were wearing cotton and jeans... the one who lived was the only one with wool top, and hat....

[roysta]

I think there is some misinformation that just gets requoted on the net. This fellow I think was last seen around 6 PM May 13 going through the park entry gates. He probably slept in his van overnight and started his walk on 14 th. It is not clear to me whether anyone actually saw him set off and what equipment he had with him

very relevant points, so is it possible this guy actually wasn't lost at all, that he simply vanished into our great southern land?

[FatCanyoner]

Apparently Prabh bought the following food the night before his walk, and it wasn't found in his van. While his family seem encouraged that it may increase his survival chances, it certainly doesn't indicate to me that he was planning any serious walking.

Home brand spring water 1.5 litre (x3)
Orange juice 2 litre
Baby spinach 160 g
Banana 1 kg
Home brand eggs 12 pk
Snack pots cranberry & nut medley 200g
Red apples .5 kg
Walnuts californian 190g
Deli fresh honey ham 125g
Deli fresh mild salami 80g
Deli fresh spicy chorizo salami 80g
Deli fresh roast chicken 100g

psrawn.jpg (54.24 KiB) Viewed 13026 times

[Strider]

Looks like he was making a salad!

[Travis22]

No matches, no bic lighter, no fire steel. Sadly i dont think he made it through the first night with the sever storm.

My gut feeling would be he is located somewhere in the LNC. It does seem like one place someone could easily slip between the rocks and vanish, specially with a little bit of snow cover and very poor visibility hiding the holes etc.

With regards to that food, according to the previous expressed beliefs of his family whereby a single grub would keep him alive for 3 weeks, that cache should seem him through about 12months..

Seriously though weather aside that amount of food is promising and one would think he carried it in a backpack of some description so perhaps he did have some other items we dont yet know about, and in better conditions i think that food would keep someone going for a month easy provided they limited their activities and have fairly amazing mental toughness and a will to survive.

His family is doing an amazing job and i hope their efforts are rewarded in the end. Their expressed views on our Govt. Police. SAR etc still rubs me the wrong way but i think by now they must have a far greater understanding of the conditions on the ground and an appreciation of the initial efforts to locate their family member (in no doubt far worse weather conditions then they have had subsequently).

Appreciate this thread being reopened mods, i like many others hear have been trying to follow this case as closely as i possibly can from my desk on the computer..

Travis.

[cjhfield]

I doubt too that he survived the first night. His biggest threat is hypothermia which kills in hours. It seems likely he was wearing a short waterproof jacket with a polyester non technical jacket underneath and jeans. He had spent 2 years living on the Gold Coast and so it is unlikely he would have had over trousers and thermals which I think would be the minimum to survive if he stopped moving. His phone trace implies he walked up the road to Kosi then headed off on the lakes walk. As long as he was moving he probably was OK at that point. That path is really a narrow road - as long as it was not buried under snow he should have been OK though may have needed to turn back if the route was covered. It seems likely he headed out to Townsend - for that he was seriously under equipped and I cant really fathom that decision. When the clouds came down and his jeans were wet he would be losing a lot of heat and the natural tendency is to lose height. In that area that needs to be done to the East but someone without a map or compass is likely to go North or West and end up is some very difficult country. Even then if he had the makings of a fire he probably would be OK. If he had got through that night he would likely have walked out under his own steam before they started looking for him a week later.

Many years ago I went on a Hobart Walking Club training trip for would-be members where we were walked away from our packs and then had to show what we had to light a fire. Of course most of us had left whatever we had in our packs and the point was made that was not good enough as you might be separated from your pack. Good advice.

Chris

[corvus]

snip

Many years ago I went on a Hobart Walking Club training trip for would-be members where we were walked away from our packs and then had to show what we had to light a fire. Of course most of us had left whatever we had in our packs and the point was made that was not good enough as you might be separated from your pack. Good advice.
snip

Chris

I doubt that many, other than smokers would have had fire starting devices in their pockets (mine is in my billy) however I also believe not many regardless would have had the ability to construct and light a fire in most Tasmanian locations in Winter and with respect a bit of a pointless exercise IMHO
corvus

[Joomy]

Latest is that the Canadian soldiers believe they have narrowed the search area to under 2 square kilometres: http://www.thespec.com/news-story/38734 ... ing-hiker/