G'day Sambar,
I agree that if an individual, company, or other entity has an interest in promoting a particular version of reality, there will always exist a temptation to manipulate figures. The stronger the incentive, the greater the hazard. In the corporate world, reports are inspected by independent auditors. The strength of the system depends on the audit, not the honesty of a self-interested party. Not all figures, or the assumptions behind them, need be checked, only a sample. But always enough to verify reliability to a satisfactory level of confidence. Academics likewise are subject to scrutiny, not by auditors but peers, who require references, methods and other data as necessary. All must be capable of measure.
In the case of culling, to determine success evaluation is likewise necessary. Anecdotal evidence alone is insufficient. We could ground verify kills, searching frantically for every last one. But this would be time consuming, costly and ultimately futile, as we do not measure success by pointing to a pile of rotting carcasses. A simpler and more cost effective option is to use a proxy measure, the Faecal Pellet Index (FPI) being just one. Chose a sample area, small enough to be cost effective, large enough to be representative. Count pellets before the cull, count pellets after the cull, estimate change in density, judge success against predefined aims. The rubbery figures of the Game-Council could neither be verified, or used to measure success. You can be sure the success of the 'Supplementary Pest Control' program will be measured, but not with rotting carcasses.
In regards to the impact of fire on deer, the helicopter study referred to a previous study conducted after the 'Black Saturday' fires of 2009 and is available here:
http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/144/paper/WR12033.htmThe focus of the study was Sambar deer at Kinglake National Park, which was burnt, and Mt Buffalo National Park, which was not. The study, again using the FPI as a proxy, recorded the steady, and uninterrupted, rise in the FPI at Mt Buffalo. Prior to 'Black Saturday', the trend at Kingslake was similar, but after fire the FPI at Kingslake plummeted to zero. After a year, Sambar abundance began to increase, with the regeneration of forest understory species. After 16-24 months it was estimated that occupancy was only slightly reduced from pre-fire levels. The area was likely re-colonised from surrounding farmland. Fencing the vacated area, or culling Sambar in the surrounding area, within eight months of fire was recommended. It was concluded that:
Sambar deer numbers were substantially reduced by the 'Black Saturday' fires of February 2009Cheers