Private Search Party for missing bushwalker Mt Koscuiskzo

[wayno]

he'd have also tried to have made himself visible.

[Onestepmore]

So it is possible that this guy is sitting things out in a snow cave somewhere and is therefore still alive.

Hopefully not like this
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/03/ ... 31951.html

These guys weren't found until mid-November

[Bluegum Mic]

As someone who was a friend of one of the above deceased I have kept to myself on this topic as I know how difficult the search in the area can be (the boys had left a comprehensive itinerary of where they were going and they were exactly where searchers thought they would be...they drove their skidoos over them numerous times...they were just too deep).
My thoughts are with the family as Ive seen first hand how heart wrenching a situation this is. However I also know how hard the SAR guys work and I know how much the family appreciated and respected their efforts in the search for the boys. Whilst I know the family are desperate to find him, Im genuinely concerned that inexperienced folk are going to join this search with the lure of the money. As anyone who's visited this area knows it is far more rugged than the lovely grassy hill that Kosciusko appears to be. Whilst I hope for a positive outcome for them, I truly hope no one else is hurt or lost in their search for answers.

[colinm]

The comments I'm reading from Canadians on the Hamilton news site suggest an abundant ignorance of the conditions here which would be comical, if it weren't such a sad situation.

Example: "The main challenge will be to find food, but there's probably root vegetables and berries he can access. With his military training, he'll know how to do that." Yeah, well, no.

This one is particularly stupid: "racism is still an issue in Australia, if he were white, he would have been found by now."

for *&^%$# sake. Get a grip.

[wayno]

be good if some Indians in Australia set them right about that one....

[Giddy_up]

Just how much snow cover is down there at the moment? Is it enough to build a survival shelter?


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[Bluegum Mic]

When he first went missing there was a reasonable cover of snow with that storm (id say up to 1m drifts in places) however we had a lot of rain that washed the majority away a couple of weeks ago. It has started to snow/rain again with this most recent ECL though snowfalls have been fairly light on so far.

[cjhfield]

It is a very sad story.

Like many on this list I have walked and skied in this area many times and have spent a good deal of time wondering how a fit young man could get into trouble here. The BOM has records of weather for the day he set out and the next few days.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/20130 ... 1305.shtml

Top temperature 4.3, winds 40km/hr with gusts to 70. 32mm of rain. The "solar exposure" was the lowest for the year up to that point.

This was not one of those blue sky days in summer when you might think about wandering round the lakes walk with minimal equipment.

Sadly the next few days were colder still. I cant imagine an experienced walker heading out to Townsend on such a day without considerable equipment.

Chris

[Stew63]

Thanks for posting that BOM weather cjhfield - WOW! Looking at those figures gives me a bit more context as to the hideous conditions he recklessly ventured into solo in jeans and a t-shirt! Heavy, freezing rain/sleet changing to snow being driven by 40+ km/h (gusting to 70km/h) winds! If he left on the 13th May as they are saying, the driving, freezing rainfall was 32mm up to 9:00am on the day he left followed by another 32mm rain/snow on that day - in a howling, horizontal, NNW wind! So ~60mm precipitation over the 36~48hours during the time he departed. Madness!

[Stew63]

Now that I think about it and after pondering for several weeks now - why would a fit, clever guy (studying law at Bond Uni.) and experienced and trained by the Canadian Army in Alpine survival, venture out solo, during hideous weather/blizzard conditions on May 13th (see BOM weather) with no equipment and wear nothing but jeans and a t-shirt? He would have known chances of survival would have been minimal - my personal opinion is he knew exactly what he was doing...

He never planned to come back...

[jonnosan]

All the reports I have read suggest it was sunny when he started out walking, the rain didn't hit till late afternoon

[Stew63]

He must have left Charlottes on the 12th then as rainfall data from the BOM website for May 13th measures the 24hr rainfall up to 9:00am on the 13th as 31.8mm. It then resets at 9:00am and measures another ~32.2mm of rain from 9:00am on the 13th to 9:00am on the 14th.

(BOM rain measurements always 'rezero' at 9:00am each day - or are the dates UTC?)

[Giddy_up]

Now that I think about it and after pondering for several weeks now - why would a fit, clever guy (studying law at Bond Uni.) and experienced and trained by the Canadian Army in Alpine survival, venture out solo, during hideous weather/blizzard conditions on May 13th (see BOM weather) with no equipment and wear nothing but jeans and a t-shirt? He would have known chances of survival would have been minimal - my personal opinion is he knew exactly what he was doing...

He never planned to come back...

I had a similar thought Stew63........Maybe he just does not want to be found, but I think police would explore this option.


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[jonnosan]

My interpretation of the data on that page is there was 31.8mm of rain in the 24 hours between 9:00am on the 13th through to 9:00am on the 14th. This is consistent with there being a heavy storm starting on the afternoon of the 13th, and continuing into the 14th, which is how all the reports I have read describe the situation.

My view is he was appropriately prepared for the conditions as they were at the start of the walk, and totally unprepared for the conditions that came on in the afternoon.

[cjhfield]

I have not read any first hand descriptions of weather on the day. The BOM site says at 9AM it was 2.8 degrees with a 43 km/hr wind and the solar exposure number makes it look as if there was very little sunshine that day. I dont know what that converts to in wind chill. I believe he was wearing a Frogs Toggs ski jacket.

Chris

[DarrenM]

My view is he was appropriately prepared for the conditions as they were at the start of the walk, and totally unprepared for the conditions that came on in the afternoon.

I dunno Jonno.... IMO nobody is ever appropriately clothed in jeans during the winter season. I cringe some days during summer seeing people head out without the right gear knowing the forecast.

I don't know of any really bombproof ways to educate people at the main tourist trailheads. I think Charlotte needs a register and some new signage explaining the need to know what the current forecast is. Bright and in your face stuff. Difficult at Thredbo but some of the switched on lifties always ask a few questions at the very least of those heading out.

I think it would be a great idea to discuss new options for education on safety in the BC. National parks used to do small brochures on safe travel and etiquette but I haven't seen or heard much for years.

Weather forecasts are absolutely everything.

[wayno]

every adult is ultimately responsible for their own welbeing. you can inform people but not everyone will take notice
Nelson lakes recently, some young tourists spoke to the rangers about conditions. the rangers said there was high avalanche risk in teh high country where they wanted to go at the time... they all completely ignored the advice and went out woefully under equipped. they were lucky to survive...

[Strider]

I dunno Jonno.... IMO nobody is ever appropriately clothed in jeans during the winter season.

And solo without a PLB and a high chance of snow.

He never planned to come back...

That's if he ever went there at all Stew...

Wasn't his visa up soon???

[DarrenM]

every adult is ultimately responsible for their own welbeing. you can inform people but not everyone will take notice
Nelson lakes recently, some young tourists spoke to the rangers about conditions. the rangers said there was high avalanche risk in teh high country where they wanted to go at the time... they all completely ignored the advice and went out woefully under equipped. they were lucky to survive...

Totally agree Wayno.....it's just frustrating. I also believe giving up on the education side is not the best way forward. Getting just one person to rethink their plans is a job well done.

It's all been said before, but this area in particular needs some new ideas.

[cjhfield]

My guess is that he initially intended to just go up Kosi as the highest mountain in Australia but found it a bit of an anticlimax and so set off on the Lakes Walk. He was probably not dressed for it but it takes a bit to stop a fit 25 year old. I crossed the McKinnon Pass in snow on the ground and driving sleet with an Israeli guy who had no rain coat and wore sandals. He believed if he walked fast enough he would generate all the heat he needed which was true I guess. I was wearing considerably more. Why this fellow chose to head out to Townsend I can't fathom.

The 2005 survey of this area said that 40% of people heading out from Charlotte Pass were poorly prepared and another 40% were partially prepared ( based on a visual inspection rather than a questionnaire ) but these people mostly make it home unscathed. Why did this fellow come to grief?

Our mountains are not very high and not very cold but the wet cold that we get, like Tas or NZ can be lethal. I guess it is easy to underestimate it. The East side of the range looks benign compared to those Western faces. The approach walk makes it easy to underestimate those Western slopes. And the easy open country of the tops make it easy to underestimate the scrub if you end up heading down into the Swampy Plain valley.

I asked my family what single thing would have changed the outcome. My son said a PLB. We have had one for the last year as they are cheapish and small and we walk enough for it to make sense but I guess it is unlikely to expect many of the Kosi visitors to have one. My wife said matches and a firelighter and I agree. The ability to light a fire can be life saving when things go pear shaped. But in an era when lighting fires is discouraged to reduce fires and protect the environment that is not an easy message for NPWS to sell.

Chris

( I think the suggestion that he did not intend to come back is offensive in this thread and is pretty baseless).

[Stew63]

That's if he ever went there at all Stew...
Wasn't his visa up soon???

As I have pondered, I also thought about this too...

As an aside... on a Canadian news forum a fellow Canadian Army member, also trained in the same intensive Canadian Alpine survival course says that what this guy has done goes completely against and is completely contrary to what they are trained and have ingrained into them throughout their tough Alpine survival training course - so why would he do it? Remember unlike a civilian tourist/bushwalker this 'lost' Canadian was not a gumby - he was a thoroughly trained 8year Canadian army reservist intensively trained/qualified in the Canadian Army's Alpine survival course.

[Stew63]

I had a similar thought Stew63........Maybe he just does not want to be found, but I think police would explore this option

Yes the police would have much more confidential information on this and perhaps this is why the search was scaled back so soon and don't wish to comment anymore? Additionally the Canadian Foreign Affairs department don't seem to wish to take the matter any further for the family. There is obviously some information the general public are not privy to me thinks...

[Stew63]

Weather forecasts are absolutely everything.

From my understanding when they extracted his laptop from the rental van they found in the computer 'History' he had in fact been looking at the weather forecasts for the area in addition to maps etc. - so he would have been well aware of the expected weather.

[DarrenM]

The 2005 survey of this area said that 40% of people heading out from Charlotte Pass were poorly prepared and another 40% were partially prepared ( based on a visual inspection rather than a questionnaire ) but these people mostly make it home unscathed. Why did this fellow come to grief?

Our mountains are not very high and not very cold but the wet cold that we get, like Tas or NZ can be lethal. I guess it is easy to underestimate it.

Some good info Chris, and the difference between cold Canadian conditions and ours completely changes the playing field.

I do recall around the time of the Snowboarder Incident that there was talk of introducing a backcountry patrol in the area. I think it was a NPWS initiative. I personally wasn't a fan of the concept as I felt it was an intrusion on the entire reason people went BC. As I pointed out at the time, the patrol would be unlikely operate when most people were in trouble. Maybe not such a bad idea?

There is usually a whiteboard or similar when leaving Thredbo with current conditions and forecast but nothing at Charlotte Pass. It would require Parks to drive up and Post something daily which would no doubt be a drain on resources and costly. (Pointless?)

You can't stop people from themselves, but you can educate them. It's very similar to the situation that the Australian Surf Lifesaving community has to deal with every day. People from all over the world come to see our beautiful beaches....then drown. They swim at home so what's the difference?

Weather forecasts are absolutely everything.

From my understanding when they extracted his laptop from the rental van they found in the computer 'History' he had in fact been looking at the weather forecasts for the area in addition to maps etc. - so he would have been well aware of the expected weather.

Maybe a complete inability to accurately assess the true nature of local conditions....or ignorance for whatever reason.

Understanding an individuals reasons for doing this or that can only be of use after the fact. I'd like to see more thinking before situations occur. Simply handing out free PLBs may save lives but still doesn't do a damn thing about having to rescue people. I'm a big fan of the devices and have owned (old frequency EPIRB) borrowed and hired for trips that I felt them necessary, but they were always backed up with years of knowledge and experience. It seems the people that need them the most, know the least about them.

More visible weather warnings and a must have list (including EPIRB/PLB available for hire in Jindy) at the major trailheads + a written intention register would be a good start?

[wayno]

i met an experienced tramper, around twenty years old on tongariro. it was drizzling and cold. he was just wearing a cotton shirt, he was raving on about how fast drying it was and how it was the best base layer to wear in all weather conditions !
he's dead now, disappeared on a south island trip and was never found,... draw your own conclusions...
you wonder what bear grylls has done to peoples outdoor mentality, not to mention the other outdoor minimalist survival shows, they make it look like its always possible to survive with what the clothes on your back and a knife... but he always has a helicopter as backup a film crew and locator beacon,,, the reality is without enough food and clothes in cold environments your metabolism drops and you're far more prone to hypothermia.... hypothermia will get you long before starvation becomes a real problem, theres no way bear grylls can keep prancing about the wilderness for days on end like he does every programme for days on end without a decent feed along the way. he's faking it otherwise.... who here is willing to try what he does and believes they'll still be able to keep up with bear?? theres a reason why we take big packs into the outdoors on trips... its called survival and safety....
where are the tv shows showing people going into the outdoors prepared with adequate gear? seems that scenario misses enough drama to qualify for making a programme let alone a series .. so what do young people think when they see people with big packs in the bush, "idiots! they havent been watching the right TV shows. "

[Lindsay]

Much has been made of the missing mans survival skills as taught by the Canadian Army. In reality he was a reservist with a supply unit. Hardly makes him an expert, as witnessed by his lack of preparation for his walk.

[Onestepmore]

Some interestng e-mails further down
(obtained from a post in the Facebook site)

http://www.scribd.com/doc/146557544/Ema ... 99s-office

[wayno]

right so the family believe prabh whan he made statements like

"Prabhalways used to say its so difficult to starve yourself b/c eating an ant orespecially a caterpillar (ONE) will give you enough protein, zinc andiron for weeks! "

i think you would have a lot of trouble to find a nutritionist who would consider that statement anything other than wildly inaccurate.

[FatCanyoner]

I know this is extremely cynical, and probably completely unfair, but I just had this thought go through my mind.

To claim life insurance you need a death certificate (which either needs a body, or an inquest where a coroner rules the person is likely deceased). The second takes years. Given there is absolutely no chance he will be found alive after this period of time, I can't help but wonder if his life insurance is what is driving the desperate body recovery process (it's also probably what will pay the $100k reward).

[wayno]

well, can anyone remember a case like this one? where the family were so vehement about continuing the search in such circumstances?