Are we on the brink of another world war?

[eth93]

What do you guys/gals think?

There seems to be so much drama going on in the world. Whether it be America/Russia, America/China, Nato/Russia, South Chine Sea, Ukraine, Syria, North Korea.

I have to admit I am a tad concerned.

[highercountry]

Nah, it's no worse than any other time since WWII.
I'm more concerned about the state of the natural world. Our extinction might just fix things.

[GPSGuided]

Media has to drum up the story to generate more page clicks, the politicians have to drum up the story to keep the population anxious and focused on external threats than within, military equipment companies (with politicians in cahoot in the Military Industrial Complex) need to magnify the fears to justify and sell more weapons. The key is to keep the real wars in 3rd world countries so their first world money and power making status quo are not threatened. Fundamentally, a world war is not to their interest.

PS. Do you really believe Nth Korea is such a threat? One true bad act and the US has enough assets to vaporise the whole Nth Korean elites. So no, they aren't that stupid. As for Sth China Sea, it's only to US/Japan's geopolitical interests that the whole issue has been stirred up. When was the last time you heard China blocked transit of a merchant ship? Presently, the issue is being negotiated and resolved b/n the relevant countries, without those 1000s of miles away i.e. Japan and US.

[eth93]

Media has to drum up the story to generate more page clicks, the politicians have to drum up the story to keep the population anxious and focused on external threats than within, military equipment companies (with politicians in cahoot in the Military Industrial Complex) need to magnify the fears to justify and sell more weapons. The key is to keep the real wars in 3rd world countries so their first world money and power making status quo are not threatened. Fundamentally, a world war is not to their interest.

PS. Do you really believe Nth Korea is such a threat? One true bad act and the US has enough assets to vaporise the whole Nth Korean elites. So no, they aren't that stupid. As for Sth China Sea, it's only to US/Japan's geopolitical interests that the whole issue has been stirred up. When was the last time you heard China blocked transit of a merchant ship? Presently, the issue is being negotiated and resolved b/n the relevant countries, without those 1000s of miles away i.e. Japan and US.

Not so much North Korea. Mainly Russian and China.

I stupidly posted this exact question on a political forum. Those guys weren't so optimistic. Infact one poster suggested we have one year, maybe two before *&%$#! hits the fan.

[GPSGuided]

There's too much money to lose to start a real war b/n the US, China and Russia. So stop reading and believing those hysterics. If you take a good look at US's actions over the last 20 years, they have been scaremongering and pushing their traditional allies out of closer economic and political relationships with China. In the meantime, the US themselves have pushed further in their economic ties with China i.e. Ensuring money flows more their way than other 1st world nations. Follow the money trail and you'll have a truer understanding of the situation. It's all about selfish geopolitical and economic interests. For the smaller fishes like Australia swimming amongst whales, the name of the game is to survive and feed the crumbs, and not become a pawn bait of others.

[ribuck]

I stupidly posted this exact question on a political forum ... one poster suggested we have one year, maybe two before $#!t hits the fan

I'm sure if you look through the archives of that forum, you will find that there have always been people saying that we have one year, maybe two before $#!t hits the fan. So far, they've always been wrong.

Which is not to downplay the fact that there are real wars being conducted at the moment, and real people having their bodies shredded by bullets and bombs. And we let our masters get away with it.

[GPSGuided]

What should also be noted amongst the 3 named major powers is to see how each of them deal with geopolitical issues since the end of WWII. Count the number of wars involved and you'll note the country that most likely to resolve issues they dislike through war is, the US. Further, it's also the country most likely to drag a bunch of allies and related countries into wars. Hence if you are going to worry about WWIII, then make sure you keep a close eye on the US. With Trump being the most extreme unilateralist president in recent history, I'd lay my concern there. Negotiation and compromise for win-win on the international stage has not been US's strong suit over this period. Still, a major war is presently not in Trump and US's economic/business interests, so they know where their military might is best used in the meantime and no WWIII while weak little countries will continue to suffer.


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[north-north-west]

So no, they aren't that stupid.

Except there are plenty of them that are that crazy. Not holding my breath but it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[GPSGuided]

There certainly are enough crazies out there but with the North Koreans, they have been cunning for years, playing brinksmanship and playing other involved parties against each other to their advantage. As for many other world matters, it's important to read reports from many other perspectives to understand what they are about. US centric views on the peninsula has also been lopsided when it comes to resolving the issues. Realistically, the US is more than happy to keep stirring the North Koreans to justify their large military presence in Sth Korea and Japan.

[eth93]

I stupidly posted this exact question on a political forum. Those guys weren't so optimistic. Infact one poster suggested we have one year, maybe two before *&%$#! hits the fan.

Here's one of the replies that got me a bit antsy. I'd be interested in what you think GPS, you seem to be well informed.

Anyway, in regards to 'when' - well, next year or the next.
That's how 'very soon' the House of Cards will fall.
Don't worry.
Billions will be annihilated but its a far better situation than what would have been the case back in the Cold War era.
All of humanity would have perished along with 90% of all life.
I've been onto this since I was 10. I'm no nerd. I'm built like a brick S***house from years in various very physical jobs.
You can think of me as KHAN (Wrath of Khan) if you like.
I always wanted to be the villan, because I know I'm a 'bad actor'

War in this era will be devastating, but it will be 'controlled' - that will be the saving grace, because there is more at stake down the track.
Hell. We still have to have World War 4 & 5, etc

If war broke out via the Cold War, Ocean-Earth would have ended up like planet MARS.
If the Pollution remained unchecked, Ocean-Earth would have ended up like planet VENUS.

We have passed the point of 'total' destruction, but War still has to be felt, as will the effects of Pollution.

So buckle down and get ready to rumble.
The fact that you are attending this issue on this Forum shows that you are willing to 'face the facts and possibilities'. Nothing wrong with that at all.

I would rather be totally wrong and laughed at by everyone in 2 years time, than be totally right.
But, things have been brought to a bottle-neck in world affairs and the squeeze is on.

[devoswitch]

Don't believe anything you hear on the media. Yeah I believe the world has hit a tipping point from which there is no return. They can't keep covering up things anymore. There's only so many ways to say the same thing.
People are awakening and are no longer willing to be controlled by the big banks and the people willing to sacrifice their empathy for a slice of the pie.
Nearly as fast as this is happening, social media and media in general is helping to brainwash the public into believing whatever it is at the time they want you to believe.
Anyways, they're my thoughts. No offence to the person who wrote the post that concerns you and they do have some relevant points. However they're part of the media problem and so am I.

[Lophophaps]

To some extent it's a beat up. Bad news sells. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-0 ... t-its-ugly
"What lies ahead for the economy this year? Will the economy finally collapse as predicted by many or will the early positive signs in stock markets around the world continue and the global economy will flourish?"

http://www.futuretimeline.net/forum/top ... ady-begun/
Predictions that did not quite happen.

https://www.ft.com/content/14e323ee-e60 ... 144feabdc0
"Now Loungani, with a colleague, Hites Ahir, has returned to the topic in the wake of the economic crisis. The record of failure remains impressive. There were 77 countries under consideration, and 49 of them were in recession in 2009. Economists – as reflected in the averages published in a report called Consensus Forecasts – had not called a single one of these recessions by April 2008."

Harry Dent has sold a lot of books due to the media not critically analysing what he said.
https://jeffvoudrie.com/independent-rev ... f-voudrie/
"Although his emails won't tell you that. He predicted in 2006 that the Dow would hit 40,000 by 2010, along with a "great boom"" that would run from 2007 until early 2010. He then predicted a market correction after this explosion, which anyone could have done. Of course the market would simmer down after hitting 40,000, which it never approached. Dent was far from reality on these predictions."

I have no idea when the next recession, depression, GFC, whatever will arrive. I have no idea how bad it will be, or how long it will last. For the last 10 years I've been restructuring things so that I can survive.
* Big cash reserve;
* Zero personal debt;
* Income bigger than expenditure; and
* Multiple passive independent income streams.
Short of anarchy and serious inflation I will manage, and far better than during the GFC. My stress test survives inflation of 8% and a 50% income drop for several years.

So my advice is to start planning now for a calamity. It might be financial, a cyclone, job loss or maybe all of these plus more. Ask a series of what-ifs, and review the answers.

[Gadgetgeek]

Steven Pinker makes the case in Better Angels of our Nature that we are farther than ever from a world wide conflict. The reality is that humanity is getting more and more empathetic, we recoil in horror at just a few deaths, where as there were periods of time that anything under 100 dead didn't rate reporting. I think we may see the collapse of capitalism as we have seen it, as various real-estate, retirement and education debt bubbles burst, but we will come up with a way to fix things around and get back to feeding people, and having houses to live in. There are so many things that could go wrong, and stress is a killer, so I'll just keep my stress low, prevent what I can, and hope for the best. But at the end of the day, we in the west live far above what any ever have in any time before us, kings or paupers.

[GPSGuided]

I am starting to think there's going to be a booming market to cater for the preppers here in Australia, all following the US lead. Given what I have seen on Youtube, I suspect there'll be even bigger profit margins than everyday outdoor gears. LOL!

Fact is, apart from the Al Qaeda/ISIL, there's no major ideology conflicts these days. All three major powers are in capitalist mode and trying to develop their economy and make money. And given the global nature of the economy these days, they all depend on each other to achieve that goal. So no, nothing explosive is going to happen apart from some trade wars and sanction. All part of the money game. As for the Al Qaeda/ISIL type of conflict, they lacked major backers to escalate to the WW scale. So it'll just be local pains, pending how the Western countries respond (another complex story).

[Gadgetgeek]

Selling prepper gear and food is big business. Not to be cynical, but with the millions in profits to be had, and the way some of the advertising goes... ah heck, to be cynical, those guys run a tight racket keeping folks paranoid and buying ammo and food.

[Neo]

Where can i get ammo?

[Neo]

But seriously, being able to walk and camp out, find water etc is your best defense if it all goes bad.
North Korea do their thing to control their people.
Im more concerned about China running our northern most point and buying up properties and farms, training pilots here etc. Will come in handy for them one day.

[Lophophaps]

Fact is, apart from the Al Qaeda/ISIL, there's no major ideology conflicts these days. All three major powers are in capitalist mode and trying to develop their economy and make money. And given the global nature of the economy these days, they all depend on each other to achieve that goal. So no, nothing explosive is going to happen apart from some trade wars and sanction. All part of the money game. As for the Al Qaeda/ISIL type of conflict, they lacked major backers to escalate to the WW scale. So it'll just be local pains, pending how the Western countries respond (another complex story).

One can but hope. Wars have escalated due to alliances. If A and K start fighting then B and C allied with A and L amd M allied with K could have a war, ABC vs KLM. The observation about countries depending on each other is not quite enough. It was irrational for Dubya to invade Iraq - there were no weapons of mass destruction. It was irrational for the Cheny war-light to be adopted, but it was. In the darkest days of the cold war it was a rational balance that kept things sane - just. The Cuban missile crisis was resolved due to a Penkovsky's information and spy flights. IS, other terrorist groups and dictators are irrational. Some purported democracies are not led by rational people.

The absence of rationality means that the general future directions of the world are unknown. Without certainty, businesses will not invest, increasing the chance of a downturn. Climate change is starting to have an impact, with sub-Sahara Africa moving away from traditional lands due to no water. If the Greenland ice shelf falls into the North Atlantic then sea levels will rise, making many big cities at risk from storm and tidal surge.

We live in interesting times.

[GPSGuided]

Australia and Western powers used to force business and land concessions on Chinese soil using the might of guns in the days gone by. Now Aussie are up in arms when Chinese are using good cash to buy businesses and land. What gives? Seriously, that's called international trade except for the xenophobia and geopolitical play. In any case in time of conflict, it's hardly ever an issue for the federal govt to take over any foreign owned land and enterprises. Not as if sovereignty has been reassigned. Not sure what the concern is apart from all the anti-China hysteria.

[Neo]

Good points. I guess it's because they are numerous, wealthy and already make most things.

[GPSGuided]

I put it down to basic human psychology, fear of the unknown and change, fanned by the US for their geopolitical motives. As said, it's not in US's interest to allow their traditional allies to go too close with China, a competitor that's due to eclipse them.

[Moondog55]

We are already fighting WW3 and have been for a while. It just doesn't involve armies on the battlefield and an exchange of WMD.
It's being fought with trade, political influence, industrial espionage, bribery, corruption, brigandage, a lot of overt sabre rattling and the very occasional exchange of small arms between very small groups.

[GPSGuided]

MD, you are giving the modern day gladiator analogy e.g. State of Origin rugby, battling in a sporting arena.

[eth93]

We've just shot down a Syrian jet. Russia has now said American jets are fair game.

Is this just more saber rattling?

After all the ruskies did nothing after the turks shot down that russian jet last year.

[GPSGuided]

Who is 'we'? Syrians lives are cheap in the eyes of the powers involved. And the Russians would not say 'American jets are fair games'. That's just rumour mongering!

[eth93]

Heres the first link I could find on my mobile.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/06/19/w ... syria.html

[GPSGuided]

So the Russians didn't use those words. It's also US centric NYT. There's been no shortage of US posturing too. It's a game for them.

[eth93]

I think its time for me to have a media black out.

1. I miss read/take out of contexts.
2. As you say. Its often bias.

[GPSGuided]

In any case, the US has been in a war or wars for a decade and more now, longer than any in modern history. There's no end in sight and has been great for their military industrial complex. As for the rest of us, I'd suggest the less we are involved the better it is. It's not in our interest but to attract unwanted attention from the other side. The thousand plus year sectarian problems of the Middle East can not be solved by foreign guns and bombs and certainly well beyond our capability. Diplomacy is far more relevant than force.

[Hallu]

Another world war ? Not really no. Despite what's being said in the media, Russia isn't very powerful. They wouldn't last in a war. It's just that they have had no strong opposition against what they did in Ukraine. At best (worst ?) you could have another war in the middle East (Iran or Saudi Arabia) or in North Korea. People fear China, but those are mostly political games, like in the China sea with Vietnam, Japan, or the Philippines. The world has become so focused on money that no one in their right mind would think of participating in a costly third world war. If it were a polarised world, with China and Russia on one side, and Europe and America on the other, maybe, but that's not the case. China and Russia use their veto on many UN proposals, but that doesn't mean they agree and are close friends. Far from it. Besides they're getting what they want. The US, with their new political agenda, are losing their front seat as world referee. Trump has become a laughing stock on the global political scene. And Theresa May is following in his steps. China looks like the moderate and sensible player now...