That Mad Belgian

[doogs]

Actually its probably pissing down out there!

http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/strathgordon.shtml

The radar is fairly good. Especially the red bits It does indicate what is happing now.
But it does not cover that SW corner. You can get an idea from the NW corner .. and the remainder on the SE corner
It is coming from the NW at the moment.
Looks fairly gentle now.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR523.loop.shtml#skip

Change the view to 256km and you can see The Spires area.

[Overlandman]

Links

http://www.louis-philippe-loncke.com

https://eur-share.inreach.garmin.com/louphi

[MrWalker]

That was pretty impressive, since he jogged up Mt Curly and checked out the view along the way. If he can maintain that pace then by dark tomorrow night he should be halfway down Pokana peak.

[jmac]

Yes, better again for the second consecutive day, but still chronically slow, don’t you think? I assume it’s a combination of a still heavy load, poor nutrition and feeling very drained. Hopefully he will get to the lake tomorrow.

To put his pace in perspective, I once camped beside the Pokana River on Badger Flat near North Star, then traversed Pokana Peak to the Pleiades Ridge, dropped to the lake, paddled across to the Clear Hill Road and had dinner in Launceston that same evening. Not putting LouPhi in shade by that memory, just observing again the huge difference in pace between normal healthy bushwalkers with regular rucsacs and his personal torment of burden/fatigue/poor nutrition. I wouldn’t be surprised if others have exited all the way from Curly in a day.

I think I’ll message him to warn him not to drop off the Pleiades ridge too soon; there’s a scrub trap. It’s better to push along until there’s a near-clear line via the unnamed little subsidiary ridge.

[jmac]

@ 20:06PM: "day 36-8 Sept. Went up again, east Mt Curly. Hard to choose route down other
side.Went down by 3pm. Broke 2nd trekking pole by 4pm. Cried for 2min.
Can't just stop, I chose to be here. Fell more."

[north-north-west]

To put his pace in perspective, I once camped beside the Pokana River on Badger Flat near North Star, then traversed Pokana Peak to the Pleiades Ridge, dropped to the lake, paddled across to the Clear Hill Road and had dinner in Launceston that same evening. Not putting LouPhi in shade by that memory, just observing again the huge difference in pace between normal healthy bushwalkers with regular rucsacs ...

I haven't been that normal and healthy for at least 25 years. If ever . . .
I think extensive experience in Tasmanian scrub and terrain make a massive difference, too. Plus the season.

His insistence on pushing on regardless is worrying, however. Stubbornness and determination are essential, but you can get to a point where you focus so hard on that goal of getting through that you are incapable of making even semi-rational decisions about your condition or the route.

[geoskid]

I can only imagine his mental state, but seems to be approaching despair. If he's got it in him, perhaps the sensible option is to get to the lake and paddle to clear hill Rd and get picked up. There's no shame in pulling out.

[doogs]

His obvious physical and mental deterioration are a worry.
I hope a couple of days on the raft doesn't give him a false sense of rejuvenation and he goes too far down the PDT finds himself into real trouble ie. Collapsing from utter exhaustion.
Ideally I love to see him get to Melaleuca so he can pop down to Point Eric (a fitting place of completion) and then fly out. However, realistically the way things are looking the Gordon Road should be a place to pause a really really really consider stopping

[Mechanic-AL]

It's just the ' un-supported, un-resupplied ' straw that is breaking the camels back. If he had a few food drops, could pick up some new walking poles etc etc. I reckon he would have skipped it in by now. As if walking the length of the state in winter isn't hard enough.
Not sure why he felt the need to ramp up the degree of difficulty ???
Hope he makes it.....
Hope he knows when to stop......

[MrWalker]

His speed has only looked good over the last couple of days compared with the painfully slow progress when he was trying to get to the track between the two airstrips.
He managed reasonable distances each day on the overland track, but only by walking for a couple of hours into the night. Which is fine on a good track, but not such a good idea where he is now or on the rough, muddy Port Davey/South Coast track.
However, I suspect that he'll feel so much better while paddling, with the weight off his legs that he'll be really keen to finish the distance.

[davidn3875]

The courage that Louphi has shown to get to this point of his expedition is simply amazing.
The courage that he would need to decide to terminate his journey will be equally demanding.
I wish for him all the best of outcomes.

[north-north-west]

His obvious physical and mental deterioration are a worry.
I hope a couple of days on the raft doesn't give him a false sense of rejuvenation and he goes too far down the PDT finds himself into real trouble ie. Collapsing from utter exhaustion.

Given that his planned route is the Anne Circuit via Wedge, any temporary rejuvenation will wear out before he reaches the PD trackhead.
But if he decides to keep paddling until he's as close as possible to McPartlans, then hoofs it across to the Pedder impoundment and paddles to the Scotts boat ramp from there . . . well, it might be doable. His food might even last.

[tastrax]

On the move - very late start at 2pm

[GPSGuided]

For the level of challenges our hard core friend is facing, how do people think this compared to the difficulties faced by early explorers? Harder, easier or on par? I’d think early explorers would have faced similar and prevailed (some obviously didn’t).

[devoswitch]

He will be just fine and will see it to the end. Pretty sure he hasn’t just done 35 odd days mostky off track inthe scrub to pull out now. He obviously has a lot of will in him and will is only gained by seeing things through to the end.

[jdeks]

It's just the ' un-supported, un-resupplied ' straw that is breaking the camels back. If he had a few food drops, could pick up some new walking poles etc etc. I reckon he would have skipped it in by now. As if walking the length of the state in winter isn't hard enough.
Not sure why he felt the need to ramp up the degree of difficulty ???
Hope he makes it.....
Hope he knows when to stop......

He's actually not even unsupported/unresupplied at this point. He picked up new gear after he swamped his raft paddling at night.

[Tortoise]

He's actually not even unsupported/unresupplied at this point. He picked up new gear after he swamped his raft paddling at night.

That's what I've been thinking. I couldn't really understand the need to push himself to the utmost under those circumstances. All in the name of science, perhaps? He'll certainly have significant data re functioning under stress, as long as he's still able to do the testing. At least if he comes back next winter for another shot at it, he'll be far more experienced with Tassie conditions.

[jmac]

Lou-Phi's timing is frustrating to watch today. The first km of the Pleaides ridge is quite hard; jagged little crests with some scrub-filled gaps before it eases. No decent water for camping. It looks like he'll crest to the trickiest bit right on dusk. Or maybe not even reach the crest at all.

[north-north-west]

Lou-Phi's timing is frustrating to watch today. The first km of the Pleaides ridge is quite hard; jagged little crests with some scrub-filled gaps before it eases. No decent water for camping. It looks like he'll crest to the trickiest bit right on dusk.

Glad you said that. Not for him, but at least it means the difficulties we had there were not unique to our erratic route-finding.
Only water I recall on that ridge was a minor saddle past the awkward section, where there were plenty of big yabby holes. Although the rain - which is probably why he left late today - means water is a bit less of an issue.
I would not care to be trying to push along that ridge by torchlight.

ps: If I was him, I'd camp near the Pokana turnoff. Only tentable site for some time.

[farefam]

Best he stays on the ridge to the saddle then descends. I've dropped off from the first knob after Pokona down to the plains, but it is very scrubby and steep (admittedly quicker but if you fell and died there you'd never be found).

I think he's well and truly past the crux of the trip and if he simply paddles across Gordon and the Pedder Impoundment (via Mc Partlan Pass) to the start of the Port Davey Track then he's just on easy tracks for the remainder of the trip and should be able to complete it (so long as nutrition and muscle wastage doesn't prove insurmountable).

I expect he was just disappointed that the loss of his walking pole will make the rest of his journey just that little bit harder.

[north-north-west]

For the level of challenges our hard core friend is facing, how do people think this compared to the difficulties faced by early explorers? Harder, easier or on par? I’d think early explorers would have faced similar and prevailed (some obviously didn’t).

1) They usually weren't alone. And the "company" often included convicts who did the hard work of carrying gear, finding and preparing food, cutting (or burning) through scrub, making camp and so on.

2) They had hunting equipment (firearms, ammo, snares, etc) and could use fire.

3) Mostly they had more sense than to go into this sort of terrain in winter.

4) A lot of this country was more open as it was still being burnt or, at the least, had been so until shortly before.

Loopy's biggest advantage is GPS navigation and comprehensive maps.

[GPSGuided]

Loopy's biggest advantage is GPS navigation and comprehensive maps.

Indeed. And being advised along the way by those with good knowledge of the area. Physical and mental hardships are the challenges.

[MrWalker]

On the move - very late start at 2pm

A benefit of his late start was that he was not tempted to head down the long descent in the dark.
I'm sure that if he had reached Pokana Peak (or the nearby unmamed peak) while still light enough to see Lake Gordon, he would have headed down and had another bad fall, or another night with a really bad camping site.
Now he just has a short distance to climb to check out a route in good daylight.

[Overlandman]

Day 37
9 Sept. Sunday with big rain & wind. Waited for better weather to get out. So slow & weak. I feel I'm older than TAS expedition 2006. Will I reach lake tomorrow? TO ALL: worldcleanupday.org next Sat 15/9!

[geoskid]

Getting to the ridge and seeing all that lovely paddle-able water will surely lift his spirits.

[Guido]

[quote="geoskid"]Yes, hopefully it will.
Lou wonders if he will reach the lake tomorrow - statistically, I'm betting that he won't. The lake is at least 6 km's away. He hasn't had a 5km+ day in a while - in fact, the only days he has walked more than 5 km's were over 2 weeks ago, on the Overland Track. And he feels weak. So my guess is that he won't be paddling before tuesday afternoon, the earliest.

[north-north-west]

Day 37... I feel I'm older than TAS expedition 2006. ...

It's twelve years later. We're ALL older!

[jmac]

Poor paddling conditions from Tuesday PM, getting worse Wednesday and Thursday, probably bad Friday too.

[doogs]

Day 37... I feel I'm older than TAS expedition 2006. ...

It's twelve years later. We're ALL older!

At least his cognitive powers are still on point!

[north-north-west]

Northerly wind, not too bad. The nor'wester would be tricky to deal with.
At least it's not southerly.